Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.81%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-2 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.