Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (7.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.