Bundesliga Gameweek 15
Dec 21, 2025 2.30pm

Preview: Mainz 05 vs St Pauli - prediction, team news, lineups

Mainz vs St Pauli - prediction, team news, lineups

In a key relegation battle in the Bundesliga, Mainz 05's Mewa Arena will be the staging ground for their clash against St Pauli on Sunday.

Sitting last in 18th place with just seven points, the hosts are six points and three places adrift of safety, while they are four points from the 16th-placed visitors, who occupy the relegation playoff spot having won 2-1 against Heidenheim on December 13.


Match preview

Mainz faced Bayern Munich last time out in the league on December 14, and they managed to earn a point against the champions after drawing 2-2, though Harry Kane's 87th-minute penalty ended any hopes of taking all three points.

Karnevalsverein also won 2-0 against Samsunspor in the Conference League on Thursday, progressing automatically to the round of 16.

The triumph was the club's first clean sheet in 12 games, and they have scored as many goals in their past two matches as they did in their prior seven.

Urs Fischer's side come into the weekend undefeated in three matches, drawing twice in that period, but they did lose four and draw one of their previous five in all competitions.

The hosts' record at home has been mixed, with the club winning two of their last five at Mewa Arena while losing just once, but they have been beaten in five of their seven home fixtures in the Bundesliga this term without claiming victory.

St Pauli deserve immense credit for beating Heidenheim considering they were reduced to 10 men in the 45th minute when Eric Smith was sent off, with the victors only leading 1-0 at that time.

The visitors are unbeaten in three matches, emerging as winners on two occasions, and they netted as many goals in that period (five) as they had in their previous five outings.

Alexander Blessin will be hoping for a first clean sheet in 14 games, though they only conceded three times in their past three matches.

Kiezkicker have only faced Mainz four times in the Bundesliga, with two of those encounters coming in the 2024-25 campaign, but they have been defeated in all four of their top-flight clashes.

St Pauli's 1-1 stalemate with FC Koln away from home on December 6 arrested a streak of five consecutive league losses on the road.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:

  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Mainz 05 form (all competitions):

  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W

St Pauli Bundesliga form:

  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

St Pauli form (all competitions):

  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Team News

Mainz's absentee list includes centre-back Maxim Leitsch, as well as midfielder Sota Kawasaki.

It should be noted that central defender Dominik Kohr is available to feature after he served a suspension due to a red card, and he is set to return to league action alongside Danny da Costa and Stefan Bell.

Kaishu Sano is certain to start in a double pivot considering he has started all 14 Bundesliga matches this term, and he could be partnered by Lennard Maloney.

St Pauli will still be without centre-back David Nemeth because of a groin problem, and Eric Smith's suspension has considerably weakened their ranks in defence.

Hauke WahlKarol Mets and Adam Dzwigala can be expected to appear in a back three on Sunday, while Joel Chima Fujita, James Sands and Jackson Irvine could play in midfield.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:

Batz; Da Costa, Bell, Kohr; Nordin, Maloney, Sano, Veratschnig; Amiri, Lee; Hollerbach

St Pauli possible starting lineup:

Vasilj; Wahl, Mets, Dzwigala; Pyrka, Fujita, Sands, Irvine, Oppie; Kaars, Lage


 

 

We say: Mainz 05 1-1 St Pauli

 

With so much at stake for both sides, supporters should expect Sunday's clash to tense, with neither side likely to overcommit.

If both Mainz and St Pauli play defensively, then the two teams may ultimately have to settle for a low-scoring stalemate.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.



 

Author photo

Written by

Share this article:
Subscribe to our newsletter

Get FREE daily news and in-depth previews for games from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football — straight to your inbox.

Subscribe