Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 55.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.94% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 19.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.31%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%) , while for a Gorica win it was 0-1 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood.