Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Celje had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Celje win was 0-1 (9.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.