Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (7.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.