Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad B win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Ceuta had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad B win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Ceuta win was 0-1 (9.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.