Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.96% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.01%) and 3-2 (4.61%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
Result | ||
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
40.59% ( 0.28) | 21.45% ( -0.01) | 37.96% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 71.61% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.22% ( 0.03) | 27.77% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
51.54% ( 0.04) | 48.46% ( -0.04) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.13% ( 0.11) | 14.87% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.79% ( 0.22) | 43.2% ( -0.23) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.12% ( -0.1) | 15.88% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.89% ( -0.18) | 45.1% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 40.59% | 1-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.83% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 21.45% | 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.3% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.8% Total : 37.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 38 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
7 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 36 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 22 |
> Australian A-League Full Table |