Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 50.48%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.41%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for MVV Maastricht in this match.

Result
MVV Maastricht	Draw	Jong Ajax
50.48% ( 0.12)	21.67% ( -0.01)	27.85% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 66% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.77% (

-0.03)

33.22% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.02% (

-0.03)

54.98% (

0.03)

MVV Maastricht Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.41% (

0.03)

13.58% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.3% (

0.06)

40.7% (

-0.06)

Jong Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.38% (

-0.09)

23.62% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.29% (

-0.12)

57.71% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

MVV Maastricht 50.48%

Jong Ajax 27.85%

Draw 21.67%

MVV Maastricht	Draw	Jong Ajax
2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.21% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 3.95% Total : 50.48%	1-1 @ 9.24% 2-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.21% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.43% Total : 21.67%	1-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.63% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 27.85%