Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 43.1%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.