Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.