Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 55.92%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 23.62% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.85%) and 3-1 (6.79%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.