Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.72%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.