Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 57.52%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 21.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.44%) and 1-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.