Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 69.93%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 13.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 3-0 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.