Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for TOP Oss had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest TOP Oss win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.