Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.