Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.36%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.