Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 49.75%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.47%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.