Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 49.52%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.