Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.