Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 57.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 20.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Willem II in this match.