Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 42.65%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.