Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.22%) and 0-1 (7.2%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.