Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 61.83%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Dordrecht had a probability of 17.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 1-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Dordrecht win it was 1-2 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.