Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 28.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.