Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 50.9%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.