Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 46.83%. A win for Dordrecht had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.06%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Dordrecht win was 2-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.