Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong PSV win with a probability of 46.92%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong PSV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.