Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 47.83%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.