Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.