Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 50.04%. A win for Roda JC had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Roda JC win was 0-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.