Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 73.85%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 10.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.45%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-2 (3.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Willem II in this match.