NAC Breda
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | First Round | 1st Leg
May 23, 2023 at 8pm UK
 

NAC Breda
1 - 0
MVV

Velanas (40' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs First Round clash between NAC Breda and MVV Maastricht.

Form, Standings, Stats

NAC Breda

All competitions
Last Game: Telstar 2-1 NAC Breda
Friday, May 19 at 7pm in Eerste Divisie

MVV Maastricht

All competitions
Last Game: Almere City 1-0 MVV
Friday, May 19 at 7pm in Eerste Divisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 62.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 17.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 1-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.91%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-2 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.

Result
NAC BredaDrawMVV Maastricht
62.5% (-0.231 -0.23)19.66% (0.096 0.1)17.84% (0.141 0.14)
Both teams to score 59.21% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.04% (-0.223 -0.22)35.96% (0.23 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.94% (-0.247 -0.25)58.06% (0.254 0.25)
NAC Breda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.96% (-0.123 -0.12)11.04% (0.13 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.63% (-0.27800000000001 -0.28)35.37% (0.28599999999999 0.29)
MVV Maastricht Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.56% (0.012 0.01)33.44% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.93% (0.012999999999998 0.01)70.07% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    NAC Breda 62.5%
    MVV Maastricht 17.84%
    Draw 19.66%
NAC BredaDrawMVV Maastricht
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.96% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.14% (0.050999999999998 0.05)
3-1 @ 7.21% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.58% (-0.029000000000001 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.97% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.95% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.63% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-2 @ 2.18% (-0.02 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.75% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.6% (-0.024 -0.02)
5-2 @ 0.96% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 3.75%
Total : 62.5%
1-1 @ 8.91% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.38% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.69% (0.042 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 19.66%
1-2 @ 4.88% (0.032 0.03)
0-1 @ 4.05% (0.047 0.05)
0-2 @ 2.22% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.96% (0.0029999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 1.78% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 17.84%

How you voted: 6th ranked lower div. vs 5th ranked lower div.

6th ranked lower div.
54.5%
Draw
36.4%
5th ranked lower div.
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Mar 10, 2023 7pm
gameweek 28
NAC Breda
4-1
MVV
Mar Omarsson (21', 45', 86'), Van der Sande (43')
Besselink (33')
Van Bommel (34')
Aug 15, 2022 7pm
gameweek 2
MVV
3-1
NAC Breda
Kostons (9'), Remans (12' pen.), Van Bommel (66')
Kostons (45'), Zeegers (47')
Van der Sande (71')
Velthuis (11'), Plat (30')
Mar 4, 2022 7pm
gameweek 29
MVV
1-2
NAC Breda
Kastrati (80')
Bannis (32'), Velanas (69')
Rutten (39'), de Rooij (89'), Banzuzi (90+6')
Oct 22, 2021 7.10pm
gameweek 12
NAC Breda
3-0
MVV
Seuntjens (13'), Kotzebue (17'), Van Schuppen (69')

Essers (40')
May 7, 2021 7pm
gameweek 37
NAC Breda
2-0
MVV
El Allouchi (29' pen., 78')
Adilehou (5'), Hendriks (52')

Mares (10'), Angiulli (32')