Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 74.07%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 8.53%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.91%) and 3-0 (10.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.06%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Alianza Lima
74.07% ( 0.16)	17.4% ( -0.08)	8.53% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 38.94% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.74% (

0.13)

48.26% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.59% (

0.12)

70.41% (

-0.12)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.54% (

0.08)

11.46% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.7% (

0.18)

36.3% (

-0.17)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

43.98% (

-0.08)

56.02% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.52% (

-0.04)

88.48% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 74.06%

Alianza Lima 8.53%

Draw 17.4%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Alianza Lima
2-0 @ 15.06% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 13.91% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.13% Total : 74.06%	1-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.38% Total : 17.4%	0-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.4% Total : 8.53%