Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Athletico Paranaense

Alianza Lima
0 - 0
Athletico PR

FT
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Alianza Lima and Athletico Paranaense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: River Plate 8-1 Alianza Lima
Wednesday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Last Game: Athletico PR 3-0 Botafogo
Sunday, November 13 at 7pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
Alianza LimaDrawAthletico Paranaense
45.17% (-0.262 -0.26)26.92% (0.366 0.37)27.91% (-0.109 -0.11)
Both teams to score 48.48% (-1.132 -1.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.78% (-1.426 -1.43)56.21% (1.419 1.42)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.73% (-1.168 -1.17)77.26% (1.162 1.16)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.2% (-0.759 -0.76)24.8% (0.752 0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.62% (-1.066 -1.07)59.38% (1.06 1.06)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.47% (-0.849 -0.85)35.53% (0.844 0.84)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.7% (-0.888 -0.89)72.3% (0.88200000000001 0.88)
Score Analysis
    Alianza Lima 45.16%
    Athletico Paranaense 27.91%
    Draw 26.91%
Alianza LimaDrawAthletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 12.28% (0.4 0.4)
2-1 @ 8.86% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-0 @ 8.57% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.12% (-0.141 -0.14)
3-0 @ 3.98% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.125 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.44% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1.39% (-0.045 -0.05)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 45.16%
1-1 @ 12.71% (0.13 0.13)
0-0 @ 8.81% (0.471 0.47)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.162 -0.16)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 26.91%
0-1 @ 9.12% (0.286 0.29)
1-2 @ 6.58% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.72% (0.042 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.27% (-0.083 -0.08)
0-3 @ 1.63% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.094 -0.09)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 27.91%

How you voted: Alianza Lima vs Athletico PR

Alianza Lima
28.6%
Draw
21.4%
Athletico Paranaense
50.0%
14