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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 25, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

River Plate
8 - 1
Alianza Lima

Alvarez (15', 18', 41', 54', 57', 83'), Simon (53'), Gomez (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Lavandeira (89' pen.)
Vilchez (14'), Rodriguez (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between River Plate and Alianza Lima, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

Last Six:
Last Game: Defensa 0-0 River Plate
Monday, June 6 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division
Next Game: River Plate vs. Tucuman
Sunday, June 12 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Alianza Lima

Last Six:
    Last Game: River Plate 8-1 Alianza Lima
    Wednesday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 19.51%.

    The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

    Result
    River PlateDrawAlianza Lima
    58.88% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)21.61% (0.0010000000000012 0)19.51% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
    Both teams to score 55.46% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    57.64% (0.024000000000001 0.02)42.36% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    35.23% (0.024999999999999 0.02)64.77% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
    River Plate Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    85.94% (0.0040000000000049 0)14.06% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    58.35% (0.0030000000000001 0)41.65%
    Alianza Lima Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    64.53% (0.034999999999997 0.03)35.47% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    27.77% (0.036999999999999 0.04)72.23% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
    Score Analysis
        River Plate 58.88%
        Alianza Lima 19.51%
        Draw 21.61%
    River PlateDrawAlianza Lima
    2-1 @ 9.95% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
    1-0 @ 9.79% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
    2-0 @ 9.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
    3-1 @ 6.5%
    3-0 @ 6.28% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
    3-2 @ 3.37% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    4-1 @ 3.19%
    4-0 @ 3.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
    4-2 @ 1.65% (0.0010000000000001 0)
    5-1 @ 1.25%
    5-0 @ 1.21% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
    Other @ 3.02%
    Total : 58.88%
    		1-1 @ 10.14%
    2-2 @ 5.16% (0.0040000000000004 0)
    0-0 @ 4.99% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
    3-3 @ 1.17% (0.002 0)
    Other @ 0.16%
    Total : 21.61%
    		1-2 @ 5.26% (0.0040000000000004 0)
    0-1 @ 5.17% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
    0-2 @ 2.68% (0.0019999999999998 0)
    1-3 @ 1.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    2-3 @ 1.78% (0.0029999999999999 0)
    0-3 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
    Other @ 1.88%
    Total : 19.51%

    How you voted: River Plate vs Alianza Lima

    River Plate
    76.2%
    Draw
    14.3%
    Alianza Lima
    9.5%
    21
    Head to Head
    Apr 7, 2022 1am
    Alianza Lima
    0-1
    River Plate

    Valenzuela (67'), Ballon (87')
    Rodriguez (88')
    Suarez (65')
    Apr 11, 2019 11pm
    Group A
    River Plate
    3-0
    Alianza Lima
    Suarez (15'), Martinez (54'), De La Cruz (93')
    Martinez (56'), Pinola (61')

    Guidino (10'), Duclos (24'), Cartagena (79')
    Mar 7, 2019 12.30am
    Group A
    Alianza Lima
    1-1
    River Plate
    Manzaneda (31')
    Cartagena (71'), Riojas (79'), Rodriguez (81'), Gallese (92')
    Ferreira (96')
    Borre (79'), Ferreira (86'), Montiel (87')