Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.