Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
40.74% ( -0.71) | 25.51% ( -0.07) | 33.74% ( 0.77) |
Both teams to score 55.49% ( 0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.61% ( 0.48) | 48.39% ( -0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.47% ( 0.43) | 70.53% ( -0.43) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.46% ( -0.14) | 23.54% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.41% ( -0.21) | 57.59% ( 0.21) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.57% ( 0.72) | 27.43% ( -0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.09% ( 0.92) | 62.91% ( -0.92) |
Score Analysis |
Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
1-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.03% Total : 40.74% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.51% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.95% Total : 33.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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