Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 31.17% | 24.96% | 43.87% |
| Both teams to score 56.42% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.25% | 46.76% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.98% | 69.02% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.73% | 28.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.02% | 63.99% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.66% | 21.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 1-0 @ 7.62% 2-1 @ 7.44% 2-0 @ 4.82% 3-1 @ 3.13% 3-2 @ 2.42% 3-0 @ 2.03% 4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.73% Total : 31.17% | 1-1 @ 11.77% 0-0 @ 6.03% 2-2 @ 5.74% 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.96% | 0-1 @ 9.32% 1-2 @ 9.09% 0-2 @ 7.2% 1-3 @ 4.68% 0-3 @ 3.71% 2-3 @ 2.96% 1-4 @ 1.81% 0-4 @ 1.43% 2-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.54% Total : 43.87% |