Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
Result | ||
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Adelaide United |
46.02% ( -0.08) | 23.21% ( 0) | 30.76% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 62.37% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.14% ( 0.02) | 38.85% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.83% ( 0.03) | 61.17% ( -0.03) |
Central Coast Mariners Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.75% ( -0.02) | 17.24% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.45% ( -0.04) | 47.55% ( 0.03) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.36% ( 0.05) | 24.63% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.85% ( 0.08) | 59.15% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.66% Other @ 4.08% Total : 46.02% | 1-1 @ 10.46% 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.76% ( 0) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.21% | 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.95% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 30.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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