Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.