Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 44.72% | 25.1% | 30.18% |
| Both teams to score 55.45% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.2% | 47.79% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.02% | 69.98% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.61% | 21.39% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.62% | 54.38% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.54% | 29.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.54% | 65.46% |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 9.72% 2-1 @ 9.16% 2-0 @ 7.49% 3-1 @ 4.71% 3-0 @ 3.85% 3-2 @ 2.88% 4-1 @ 1.82% 4-0 @ 1.49% 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.5% Total : 44.72% | 1-1 @ 11.87% 0-0 @ 6.3% 2-2 @ 5.6% 3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.09% | 0-1 @ 7.7% 1-2 @ 7.26% 0-2 @ 4.71% 1-3 @ 2.96% 2-3 @ 2.28% 0-3 @ 1.92% 1-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.46% Total : 30.18% |