Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 81.42%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.48%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estoril Praia |
81.42% ( 0.34) | 12.35% ( -0.29) | 6.23% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 45.34% ( 0.88) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.93% ( 1.27) | 33.06% ( -1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.2% ( 1.45) | 54.79% ( -1.45) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.84% ( 0.32) | 6.16% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.68% ( 0.9) | 23.31% ( -0.9) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.32% ( 0.77) | 51.68% ( -0.78) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.2% ( 0.5) | 85.79% ( -0.51) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estoril Praia |
2-0 @ 12.36% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.16) 5-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.09) 6-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.09) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.59% Total : 81.41% | 1-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.62% Total : 12.35% | 0-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 1.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 6.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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