Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.3%) and 0-2 (5.37%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Everton |
| 36.2% ( | 23% ( | 40.8% ( |
| Both teams to score 65.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.98% ( | 36.02% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.88% ( | 58.12% ( |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.68% ( | 20.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.3% ( | 52.7% ( |
| Everton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.78% ( | 18.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.76% ( | 49.24% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Everton |
| 2-1 @ 8% ( 1-0 @ 5.9% ( 2-0 @ 4.7% ( 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 3-2 @ 3.62% ( 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 4-1 @ 1.69% ( 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 4-0 @ 1% ( Other @ 3.1% Total : 36.2% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 2-2 @ 6.81% ( 0-0 @ 3.7% ( 3-3 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 0.39% Total : 23% | 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0-2 @ 5.37% ( 1-3 @ 4.85% ( 2-3 @ 3.87% ( 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 1-4 @ 2.07% ( 2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0-4 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 3.8% Total : 40.8% |