Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 33

Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
5 - 1
Luton

Hashioka (2' og.), Kovacic (64'), Haaland (76' pen.), Doku (87'), Gvardiol (90+3')
De Bruyne (43')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Barkley (81')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Real Madrid 3-3 Man City
Tuesday, April 9 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Luton 2-1 Bournemouth
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 88.88%. A draw had a probability of 7.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 3.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.43%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (1.16%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Luton Town
88.88% ( 0.17)	7.58% ( -0.12)	3.53% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 47.91% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

79.79% (

0.41)

20.21% (

-0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

61.61% (

0.59)

38.39% (

-0.59)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.22% (

0.08)

2.78% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

87.27% (

0.29)

12.73% (

-0.29)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.28% (

0.18)

50.71% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.85% (

0.12)

85.15% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 88.88%

Luton Town 3.53%

Draw 7.58%

Manchester City	Draw	Luton Town
3-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 9.68% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 7.34% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.06) 6-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.07) 6-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 7-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.03) 7-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 6-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) 8-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.87% Total : 88.88%	1-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.66% Total : 7.58%	1-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.42% Total : 3.53%