Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 70.62%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 12.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.