Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.82%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.