Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for an Atalanta BC win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.