Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 13.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.34%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.