Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 45.19%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.